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Proposing Probabilistic Operational Risk Assessment Model for Textile Industry Using Bayesian Approach

General problems of the fibre and textile industries

Authors:

  • Jan Mustafa
    Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering, National University of Science & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Khalid M. Saeed (j/w)
  • Awan Akbar Ali
    Department of Management & Information System, National University of Science & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Nisar Salman
    Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering, National University of Science & Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

Nr DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0010.5860

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Abstract:

Accidents, operational failures and losses prompt authorities to highlight the importance of adequate systems and controls to deal with operational risk (OR). Therefore risk assessment methodology has become a dire need of major industries for undertaking valuable measured in production and operation’s research. The paper describes methodology for conducting the risk assessment of the textile operational domain in general i.e. developing a conceptual risk assessment framework and conducting the methodological implementation of the selected operational risk element using the approach proposed. The risk assessment model proposed embraces the concept of probabilistic risk assessment structural modeling using the Bayesian Approach in its generalised form that may be applied to specific textile operational settings with the definition of dimensions and scales for a specific textile environment. The generalised model proposed can also be applied to different textile industries with the insertion of real data for testing and validation. The OR prediction model proposed is GUI-based, scalable, expandable and can be tested for any textile operations with little modification in parentend nodes under the specific risk element. The paper is helpful to ensure safety and a pro-active approach in textile risk management and also contributes towards the sustainable development of industry operations in the future.

Tags:

operational risk, probabilistic risk assessment model, probability, impacts,
Bayesian approach.

Citation:

Jan M, Khalid MS, Awan AA, Nisar S. Proposing Probabilistic Operational Risk Assessment Model for Textile Industry Using Bayesian Approach. FIBRES & TEXTILES in Eastern Europe 2018; 26, 1(127): 10-20. DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0010.5860

Published in issue no 1 (127) / 2018, pages 10–20.

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